The real estate bubble, or maybe it was a credit bubble, is gone and not likely to return. Home builder stocks and financial stocks aren't likely to rebound to the point where valuations get out of hand. Tech stocks recovered somewhat after the 2000 crash, but the bubble never reinflated. So fundamental investors might have good luck with KB Home or JPMorgan Chase going forward. The crazy times are behind us; fundamental analysis is back.
Barry Ritholtz, chief executive and director of equity research at FusionIQ, says that the housing downturn is more the result of a credit bubble than a real estate one. He defines a bubble as when an area loses its connection to its fundamental cost basis. Since credit became so readily available it no longer depended on the credit borrower's ability to repay the loan, mortgages were handed out like lollipops. "There was a spike not because of anything related to housing but because of credit," Ritholtz says, which led to people purchasing houses they couldn't afford.
Because there was no speculative frenzy to flip houses in the Midwest, Ritholtz argues that the only bubble-like areas in real estate were south Florida, Arizona, Las Vegas and southern California, which are also some of the first areas to pull out of this slump. He's also optimistic that housing will turn around because banks have tightened their credit requirements, and the overabundance of houses will eventually be taken care of through population growth and immigration. But if home builders continue to put up new homes at the rate that they were a few years ago, this housing slump could last for a while. "The longer they want to wait [to stop building houses], the worst it will be for them," Ritholtz says.
The technology bubble and the housing crisis might have more in common than investors would think. "After the tech bubble, the Fed lowered rates dramatically, which led to the inflation in the real estate market," says Bernie McSherry, senior vice president of strategic initiatives at Cuttone & Co. He expects the housing situation to turn around sometime this summer, as homeowners in parts of Florida and California are purchasing houses that they perceive are values.
Scott Colyer, chief executive officer of Advisors Asset Management, also sees the housing downturn as having already ended. Colyer says that housing has pronounced cycles and we're likely going to have another housing crisis in about 20 years. Signs of healing in the market include existing home sales being up and some relatively cheap new housing, he says. Though the tech bubble and the housing bubble were different, Colyer notes that all bubbles have these same characteristics: toxic assets, overleveraging, the inability to assess risk and overpriced assets.
John Jay, senior analyst at the Aite Group, also sees the housing crisis correcting itself, as there is "no way to get your hands on the financing of two years ago." He adds that the sales of foreclosed homes offer hope that this downturn is starting to turn around. |